Kuantum Bilgisayarlar: Eşiğe Ne Kadar Yakınız?
Quantum computing has moved beyond the stage where raw qubit counts provide a meaningful measure of leadership. By 2026, the central challenge is no longer simply building more physical qubits, but turning unreliable physical components into logical qubits capable of running long, error-corrected computations. The competitive landscape therefore has no single undisputed leader. Google has demonstrated below-threshold quantum error correction with its Willow processor. IBM is pursuing modular quantum-centric systems and targets a 200-logical-qubit, 100-million-gate fault-tolerant machine in 2029. Quantinuum's trapped-ion Helios system emphasizes exceptionally high fidelity and logical-qubit performance, while China's Zuchongzhi 3.0 has delivered major experimental results in superconducting quantum computation. DARPA's Quantum Benchmarking Initiative reinforces the uncertainty: six companies using markedly different architectures are now undergoing its final verification stage. The most defensible window for the first economically meaningful fault-tolerant quantum applications is the early 2030s, particularly in chemistry, materials science and quantum simulation. That remains a forecast rather than a guaranteed engineering schedule. For most people, quantum computing is unlikely to arrive as a personal device; its effects will probably emerge through cloud infrastructure, scientific discovery and industrial products. Its first societal impact, however, has already begun. Governments and companies are migrating toward post-quantum cryptography before sufficiently powerful cryptanalytic quantum computers exist. Türkiye entered the hardware field with TOBB ETÜ's five-qubit superconducting QuanT system. Its larger opportunity now lies in building durable expertise across error correction, control electronics, cryogenics, software, quantum security and specialized components rather than treating physical qubit count as the primary national benchmark.